The Three Laws of Robotics (Isaac Asimov):
1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Laws.
To these three fundamental laws of robotics created by genius Isaac Asimov, a fourth one should be added. Bill Gates said a few days ago: “If a robot is going to do the work of a human, should pay the taxes of a human being.” The change of concept is tremendous. From confrontation to symbiosis. From seeing the robot as a potential enemy that takes away our work, and therefore our source of income, to see the robot as a generator of wealth distribution. At the end of the day, the concept of taxes, if properly managed, is about wealth redistribution. If proper taxes were not around, there would be no health, education, infrastructure or security within the reach of all citizens, and not only for those who could pay them. Following this new line of thought, robot’s substitutions could become an engine of growth and development that goes beyond the economic level, reaching humanistic and social level.
To reinforce this argument, let’s start from what seems to be the actual situation perceived from the human worker point of view. Let’s look at the hypothesis under the alternative of a zero-sum. In that scenario, when a robot replaces a human worker, the number of jobs remains constant, and there is no transfer of wealth to the worker. As a result, the State collects less and the human being is being fired. In other words, the human faces a lower supply of work in their specialty (now it is performed by a robot). He has to become skilful in a different activity, and to fund this process the ex-worker has to either draw down his own savings or the State’ savings. It is very human to understand that the introduction of the robot in this system is not very welcome by the human being. However, if the human being who is replaced by a robot continues to receive, directly or indirectly, economic resources that allow him to, without draining his savings or those of the State, to continue with their normal lives, then the scenario changes. It allows him to not only survive, but to contribute to his profesional skills upgrade process. This means freeing up human resources that can be dedicated, according to the free will of each individual, to generate new activities both economic and social. This is no longer zero-sum. This is where Bill Gates’ concept is crucial.
Turning to the economic analysis, what are we talking about? According to World Robotics, 2015 has been by far the year in which more robots have been created. The concept of robots is very broad. We are talking here about robots for industrial use. The data is of 254.000 industrial robots in 2015. If y
ou add the number of industrial robots sold in the last 10 years, the figure would be about a million and a half robots. In perspective, it is as if all citizens of Barcelona were robots (or Munich, Milan, Brussels…).
Where are these robots? 75% of total number of robots are concentrated in 5 countries: China, Korea, Japan, USA and Germany. The growth in the past few years is over 15% per year. In terms of density, the typical measure is the number of robots per each 10,000 employees. In Germany this figure reach 300 robots. The global average is 69. In Europe, after Germany, it comes Italy, France, and Spain. The European average is 92, 86 in the Americas and 57 in Asia. In Spain, the sale of industrial robots has reached a figure of absolute record (mostly derived by Automotive industry). To Brexit’s followers, commenting that the United Kingdom has seen this number of robots decreasing in recent times.
Robots, as the rest of the technological progress process, are here to stay. Their number will growth undoubtedly. Since the end of the 20th century, many studies were performed of the potential impact of a society with robots performing human jobs. It has being reflected in films such as Star Wars, Galactic, I, Robot, Ex-Machina, etc..
Robots are a human creation. Something initially created as a tool, has evolved to the point of being able to replace itself certain tasks previously carried out by humans. This progress, both in the versatility of the function as in the “intelligence” of its performance (Artificial Intelligence) is unstoppable. We cannot afford to ignore this reality. We better assume it and manage it. Its impact on human activities is not a probability, it is a reality. If we don’t manage that impact now that density of robots by workers is still at manageable levels, the future would be quite complicated.
No one knows for certain which is the density threshold at which the impact will be a real turning point. In Europe, according to Eurostat, the employed population is about 212 million inhabitants (2016). If in Europe, we reach a density of 500 robots for each 10.000 workers, we are talking about an impact of almost 11 million industrial robots. Following previous comparison, if substitution was one to one, it would be as if all workers from Barcelona, Munich, Milan, Brussels, Paris, and Birmingham were all robots.
The impact on the human workforce is a certainty. If we do not anticipate and manage this transition, the zero-sum scenario can be a sad reality. If, for the sake of a better society, we assume that is absolutely necessary to be ways for people to live fulfilling lives even if society needs relatively few workers, then, taxing the robots suggested by Bill Gates may be a line of action.
Let’s be attentive.
Francisco Canós
Article published in Spanish last 24th February 2017:
